By The Village Political Commentator
BVUKURURU- In the shadowy corridors of Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu PF party, a high-stakes drama is unfolding that could reshape the nation's political landscape. President Emmerson Mnangagwa, often dubbed "the Crocodile" for his cunning survival instincts, is locked in a fierce internal battle with his deputy, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, a former military strongman who helped orchestrate the 2017 coup that brought Mnangagwa to power.
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| General Constantino Chiwenga aka Gudo Guru |
At the heart of this conflict is Mnangagwa's apparent ambition to extend his presidency beyond the constitutional two-term limit ending in 2028, potentially sailing through to 2030 or even a disguised third term. Chiwenga's camp, backed by elements of the military and war veterans, is pushing back hard, viewing this as a betrayal of the post-coup agreement that positioned Chiwenga as the natural successor.
While the fights may seem like political fiction to outsiders, they are rooted in real tensions that have analysts divided on who will emerge victorious.
The roots of this rift trace back to the 2017 military intervention that ousted Robert Mugabe. Mnangagwa ascended to the presidency with Chiwenga's backing, but whispers of an unspoken pact—that Mnangagwa would serve one or two terms before handing over—have since soured into open hostility. By 2023, Mnangagwa secured re-election amid controversy, but his allies began floating the "ED2030" slogan, tying his extended rule to Zimbabwe's Vision 2030 economic blueprint. This move, critics argue, is a thinly veiled attempt to amend the constitution and cling to power, sidelining Chiwenga and elevating figures like businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei as potential heirs.
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| Emmerson Mnangagwa current Zimbabwean President wants to rule beyond his term limit and planning to leave Kudakwashe Tagwirei in power. |
Political analyst Vivid Gwede notes that Tagwirei's rise has provoked ire from Chiwenga's allies, who see it as Mnangagwa's strategy to "crush" his deputy's presidential dreams.
Recent escalations have brought the feud into sharp relief. In September 2025, Chiwenga presented a explosive seven-page dossier to the Zanu PF presidium, accusing Mnangagwa's inner circle of manipulating party structures, looting public funds, and pushing an unconstitutional term The document, leaked to the media, lambasted the "ED2030" agenda as corrupt and divisive, warning of potential instability. Mnangagwa's response was swift and brutal. During an October 15, 2025, politburo meeting, he unleashed a counterattack through legal affairs secretary Ziyambi Ziyambi, branding Chiwenga's report as "treasonous" and hinting at violations of the Official Secrets Act.
Ziyambi even suggested reorientation courses at the Chitepo School of Ideology for the entire politburo, underscoring the deep mistrust. This tit-for-tat has spilled into public view, with clashes at events like the National Heroes Acre burial and warnings from figures like former MP Temba Mliswa that Chiwenga could face expulsion at the ongoing Mutare conference.
Analysts offer a mixed prognosis on the outcome. Eldred Masunungure, a University of Zimbabwe lecturer, argues that Mnangagwa's faction holds the upper hand due to superior resources and control over party machinery. He dismisses Chiwenga's war veterans' backing as outdated, likening them to "political dinosaurs" outmatched by Mnangagwa's "Young Turks" and their financial muscle.
Jealousy Mawarire echoes this, predicting the Mutare conference could seal Chiwenga's fate, as Mnangagwa has systematically sidelined his allies since consolidating power post-2017.
Yet, others see vulnerabilities in Mnangagwa's camp. Gwede highlights Chiwenga's enduring military loyalties, forged during the liberation war and the 2017 coup, as a potential game-changer.
Reports of military letters decrying corruption and Mnangagwa's cancellation of a UN trip suggest internal pressures mounting against him.
Opposition voices, like those from the Citizens' Coalition for Change, urge staying out of the fray, warning that Zanu PF's infighting could destabilize the country
In my view, Mnangagwa's cunning has allowed him to navigate crises before, but this time he may have overplayed his hand. His push for extension ignores a weary populace fed up with economic woes and governance failures, as evidenced by protests and analyst warnings of regional spillover.
Chiwenga's camp, with its security sector ties, holds the wildcard—the army has been Zimbabwe's kingmaker since 1975.
If push comes to shove, as in the leaked threats of coups or impeachments, Chiwenga's faction could prevail, especially if Mnangagwa's corruption scandals erode his base further.
However, Mnangagwa's control of state institutions and international maneuvering—courting Beijing while Chiwenga eyes New Delhi—gives him an edge in the short term.
Ultimately, I lean toward Mnangagwa sailing through to 2030, not through strength but through division: his Machiavellian tactics of pitting factions against each other could delay a reckoning, even if it means a hollow victory.
Zimbabwe deserves better than this endless cycle of elite squabbles. As analysts like Masunungure warn, these power games risk broader instability, with mass immigration and economic collapse as collateral.
Whether Chiwenga's camp triumphs or Mnangagwa endures, the real losers are ordinary Zimbabweans, trapped in a narrative of betrayal and ambition that shows no signs of abating. The Mutare conference may provide clues, but the storm is far from over.
